Tampa Sports Authority report lays framework for financing a new Rays stadium
A third-party consultant hired by the Tampa Sports Authority to study the fiscal impact of a new Tampa Bay Rays stadium in Ybor City has concluded its analysis.

By Ashley Gurbal Kritzer
Tampa Bay Business Journal
Published: Feb 6, 2022

Chicago-based Aecom's report, obtained by the Tampa Bay Business Journal, analyzes the impacts of stadium- and event-related spending as well as the impact of ancillary real estate development around the stadium. The authority also hired design-build firm Skanska to evaluate the viability of a new stadium.

Taken together, the reports give civic leaders a foundation for the financial modeling of a new stadium, Hillsborough County Commissioner Ken Hagan told the Business Journal on Sunday. The Rays are targeting the former headquarters of Kforce Inc. in Ybor, at 1001 E. Palm Ave., as their site of choice for a new stadium.

Skanska estimates a new stadium costing at least $799 million; a fixed roof, long seen as a necessity during the Florida rainy season, could add $160 million to $180 million to the total cost. Those figures do not include land acquisition or infrastructure costs.

Skanska estimates a construction period of 42 to 48 months. (In 2018, the Rays proposed a roofed stadium on a nearby site in Ybor that was slated to cost $892 million.)

The stadium would have a total capacity of 27,096, with 23,096 fixed seats, 1,500 berm seats and a standing room only capacity of 2,500.

"The next step will be to identify the revenue that can be generated from these sources to create a financial model for the ballpark," Hagan said, "so I’m hopeful we could have that analysis within a relatively short period of time."

Part of Aecom's study included the review of an economic impact analysis compiled by sports facility consulting firm Brailsford & Dunlavey, which was hired by the Rays. The Rays' consultants based their projections on the team's proposal of splitting its season between Tampa and Montreal. The split-season concept, first proposed in 2019 by Rays owner Stu Sternberg, was quashed by Major League Baseball in early 2022.

Aecom's numbers are based on fiscal impact projections, while the Rays' consultants based their figures on economic impact projections. The Aecom projections are largely based on taxes collected in and around the stadium.

While Brailsford & Dunlavey's projections include only a split-season scenario, Aecom also crunched numbers for a full-season stadium at the behest of TSA.

Aecom's calculations for full-season fiscal impacts include "sales taxes on tickets, concessions, catering, merchandise and parking in and around the stadium, as well as any surcharges that may be levied on tickets, food and beverage or other special revenue streams. In addition, the potential funding model includes the imposition of a Public Use Fee on all taxable sales generated within the stadium and surrounding mixed-use district."

Based on those projections, Aecom estimates fiscal impact figures for a full-season scenario that start at $6.2 million and could grow to $7.61 million by 2032. The impact of ancillary real estate development — which includes the mixed-use Gas Worx district — is estimated at $20.2 million.

Brailsford & Dunlavey had projected an economic impact of $293 million annually in a split-season scenario. Of that, $123 million was directly related to Rays' operations and $169 million would be generated by visitor spending outside the stadium.

“The TSA and their consultants have done excellent due diligence," Tampa Mayor Jane Castor said in a statement. "Our goal was and remains to be good stewards of public tax dollars while working to keep the Rays in Tampa Bay. We still have a lot of work to do."

The Rays refused to share revenue figures with Aecom, citing confidentiality concerns, according to the report. Aecom estimated ticket prices and used industry research to estimate gross spending. The consultants also assumed an average attendance of 20,000 per game at the new stadium; the team's average attendance in 2021 fell to a franchise-low 9,396 fans per game. (In 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic, the team's average home attendance was roughly 14,500.)

"At the end of the day, if it’s a bad model and the taxpayers are fleeced, hell, I’ll vote against it," Hagan said. "But let’s see what we can come up with a creative financing model."

Consultant B&D's $293 million figure includes the Tampa Bay Rowdies, a professional soccer team also owned by Sternberg, moving its games to the Ybor City facility and doubling its home game attendance. The figure was also based on 16 spring training games being moved to the Ybor stadium.

"From my perspective, the Rays did a great job in their concept and building ideas, and their preliminary work is very helpful in trying to find a long-term solution," TSA CEO Eric Hart said Sunday. "These reports were our measurement of their concepts and we believe they are the very good starting point for further discussions on a full season stadium."

A Rays spokeswoman declined comment Sunday.