Report: Tampa Bay housing markets are less at risk to pandemic damage than other Florida counties
By Grace Mamon
Tampa Bay Business Journal
Published: Jul 22, 2021

Central Florida housing markets are some of the most at risk for Covid-related damage, but Tampa Bay area counties are in better shape.

ATTOM, a California-based property data company, analyzed 564 counties to determine the top 50 most exposed to the potential economic impact of the pandemic in the second quarter of 2021. States along the East Coast, as well as Illinois, were most at risk, while western states remained less exposed, said a report. ATTOM saw clusters in New Jersey, Delaware, the Chicago area and central Florida, according to the report.

This included seven counties in Florida:

Bay County in Panama City (No. 7) Clay County in Jacksonville (No. 17) Osceola County in Kissimmee (No. 35) Lake County outside Orlando (No. 36) Marion County in Ocala (No. 38) Indian River County in Vero Beach (No. 44) Highlands County in Sebring (No. 45)

Local counties fared much better in ATTOM’s analysis, barely even landing in the top 100.

Hernando County is the highest local county on the list at No. 61. Hillsborough County, the next ranked county in this metro area, doesn’t rank until No. 265.

In the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton metro area, Manatee County ranked No. 91, and Sarasota County ranked No. 186.

In the Lakeland-Winter Haven metro area, Polk County ranked No. 117.

ATTOM studied the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports to create this report.

“Markets were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded the estimated property value and the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major homeownership expenses on median-priced houses or condominiums,” a release said.

These findings come after a year when the national housing markets had continued their decade-long boom despite the pandemic. Median single-family home prices have risen more than 10% across much of the country in the past year.

Waning pandemic concern, growing employment and economic improvement are fueling further price increases.

“[This] suggests that the nation’s housing market will indeed escape any major damage from the crisis,” Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM, said in the release. “No major signs are showing anything different at this time.”

But the pandemic is still out there, Teta said, and despite the generally upbeat outlook, Covid-19 could still be a threat to home sales and values, especially in at-risk areas on the East Coast and in the Midwest. The study shows there are higher levels of unaffordable housing, underwater mortgages and foreclosures in at-risk counties.

Major homeownership for median-priced single-family homes consumed over 30% of average local wages in 23 of the 50 most at-risk counties. And at least 15% of mortgages were underwater in the first quarter of the year in 33 of the top 50 most exposed counties.

Only three western counties cropped up in the top 50 during the second quarter of 2021, in northern California and southern Arizona.