Five signs the economy may be cooling
By Jeff Harington
Tampa Bay Times
Published: Jul 5, 2018

Today's release of the national jobs report for June will resurface a question looming for months: Just how long can this economic recovery last?

It could just be a summer swoon, but increasingly concerns of a trade war, higher prices and weakened hiring are dogging investors and consumers alike. No matter the latest job numbers, that angst is being fueled as we enter the next phase of a global trade showdown: The U.S. today will start enforcing tariffs on $34 billion in Chinese goods, and Beijing has pledged to retaliate in kind with tariffs on U.S. exports.

Here's a look at five barometers out this week that highlight fears the economy is slowing down:

1. CEO confidence is waning

Chief executives have a more tempered economic outlook in the third quarter survey released Thursday by The Conference Board.

Just 48 percent of the corporate leaders expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, down from 63 percent in the second quarter.

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, said that despite "considerable" easing over economic prospects, most CEOs still expect higher profits over the coming years.

2. Consumer confidence is slipping

For the first time in nearly two years, all five components that make up the University of Florida's consumer confidence index declined in June.

The biggest drop? Like the CEOs, consumers are worried about short-term prospects for the national economy.

Overall, consumer sentiment statewide fell 1.9 points in June to 98.3 from a revised figure of 100.2 in May.

3. Fewer online job ads

Online advertised vacancies dropped 171,600 to just over 4.48 million in June, according to a separate report from The Conference Board.

Currently there are approximately 1.3 unemployed workers per advertised vacancy - based on data showing 6.07 million jobless in May. Among professionals, the biggest drop came in health care practitioners (down 26.8 percent) and business (down 16.4 percent).

4. A drop in hiring

Small businesses hired workers at a slower pace in June, the second straight month of weakening job gains, according to data from payroll company ADP released Thursday.

Companies with 49 or fewer employees added 29,000 jobs last month, down from 46,000 in May and 50,000 in April.

It's a similar story for the big picture. Overall, private employers added 177,00 jobs last month, ADP estimated, a drop-off from the average hiring of 202,667 a month so far this year. A big part of the problem, employers say, is finding skilled workers to match openings.

5. A rise in job cuts

Florida employers cut 1,248 jobs in June, more than doubling the pace from the same month a year ago, according to a report released Thursday by Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

The good news: year-to-date, job cuts are down 6 percent from the same period a year ago: 8,163 compared with 8,684.

Nationwide, retailers continue to lead the reduction with 73,066 job cuts announced so far this year, including 16,540 in the second quarter.